John Batchelor and his colleague, General Blaine Holt, a United States Air Force retired general, discussed the significance of a military exercise currently underway in Belarus involving Russia and B

John Batchelor and his colleague, General Blaine Holt, a United States Air Force retired general, discussed the significance of a military exercise currently underway in Belarus involving Russia and Belarus, known as Zapad. This exercise is taking place near the NATO frontier in Poland, following an incident where drones reportedly crossed the border from Belarus into Poland. General Holt explained that military exercises offer a significant advantage. While exercises are common—with approximately 55 scheduled annually in Europe, often retaining the same names and declared routinely, such as the Zapad exercise in Belarus—they serve more than just a training purpose. General Holt described this dual function as "cocking a gun," where forces achieve a very high state of readiness. Although adversaries are typically informed in advance about these "normal boring exercise[s]," this readiness can then be utilized to launch a real operation. Beyond operational readiness, General Holt highlighted the diplomatic impact of exercises. Calling for an exercise sends a strong signal to an adversary, implying that military options are under consideration and that the situation could escalate to "something much bigger". He stressed that exercises should always act as a "flag in our brains," prompting consideration of whether they are purely for training and readiness or "something else". Overlaying the geopolitical situation onto an exercise provides a "different picture" than simply viewing it as forces preparing for future events. 1791 CATHERINE OF RUSSIA