ISMS 28: Stocks for the Long Run

Stocks for the Long RunClick here to get the PDF with all charts and graphsWhat long-term return do you expect for US stocks? In Siegel’s “Stocks for the Long Run,” he tells us to expect a 5% LT real US stock market return I became a finance teacher in Thailand in 1992Then started as a financial analyst in 1993Siegel’s book came out in 1994 and was one of the best references available at the timeUS nominal returnsUS real returnsMore than 200 years of returns95 years of returnsHigher inflation and higher nominal stock market returns, but only slightly higher real returnsSlightly lower real LT bond return, near zero ST bond returnPost WWII/Bretton Woods 75 years of high inflationReal stock returns up slightlyReal LT bond returns downReal ST bond returns down to zeroGold outperformed ST bondsThe 21 years after the Dot Com bubble saw an unprecedented level of globalizationInflation was down, and real US stock returns also downReal US LT bond returns upNominal ST bond collapse, and real returns turn neg.Gold beats allSiegel’s adviceOver the long-term, an investor has paid about 15x PE for about 6-7% after inflation US stock market returnIn the future, expect to pay about 20x PE for about 5% after inflation returnClick here to get the PDF with all charts and graphsAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and...