“On January 1, 2030, there will be no AGI (and AGI will still not be imminent)” by Yarrow

On January 1, 2030, there will be no artificial general intelligence (AGI) and AGI will still not be imminent. A few reasons why I think this: -If you look at easy benchmarks like ARC-AGI and ARC-AGI-2 that are easy for humans to solve and intentionally designed to be a low bar for AI to clear, the weaknesses of frontier AI models are starkly revealed. -Casual, everyday use of large language models (LLMs) reveals major errors on simple thinking tasks, such as not understanding that an event that took place in 2025 could not have caused an event that took place in 2024. -Progress does not seem like a fast exponential trend, faster than Moore's law and laying the groundwork for an intelligence explosion. Progress seems actually pretty slow and incremental, with a moderate improvement from GPT-3.5 to GPT-4, and another moderate improvement from GPT-4 to o3-mini. The decline in [...] --- First published: April 6th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xkNjpGNfnAYmkFz3s/on-january-1-2030-there-will-be-no-agi-and-agi-will-still --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.