“Next-gen LLINs with chlorfenapyr” by Scott Smith

Epistemic status: Not a SME and not a data analyst. If mistakes are brought to my attention, I will likely make running changes and pretend it was like that all along. Summary I'm splitting this into two parts. Part A is mostly descriptive, in which I share information on next-generation long-lasting insecticide treated bed nets (LLINs): Of the LLINs produced to counter insecticide resistance, WHO and GiveWell agree that those that include the active ingredient chlorfenapyr are the most effective. Effectiveness analysis conducted by Mosha et al. (2022) estimated that LLINs with chlorfenapyr more than half the incidence of malaria in children in the first year, and reduce it by over a third in the second year, compared to traditional LLINs. GiveWell's current estimate is that LLINs that include chlorfenapyr have precisely negated the effects of insecticide resistance accrued since approximately the year 2000. Part B is [...] ---Outline:(00:17) Summary(02:02) \*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*(02:22) Part A(02:25) Introduction(04:17) Results of next-gen LLIN field RCTs(04:24) Overview(06:49) Trials test product effectiveness, not active ingredient effectiveness per se(09:23) Effectiveness Analyses by Pros(09:27) Mosha et al.(14:45) GiveWells estimates(15:01) A ~45% base effectiveness(16:16) How much has pyrethroid resistance diminished LLIN effectiveness?(19:12) \*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*(19:32) Part B(19:35) My estimate for Interceptor G2 LLIN effectiveness(21:45) Modelling to get my estimate(23:01) Effect size inputs(23:05) What is the assumed Interceptor G1 effect at 70% use rates?(24:22) What was the effect for cohort children in the trials?(25:03) Other model inputs underlying adjustments(25:08) Community versus personal protection(25:43) LLIN use rates(26:04) Internal validity adjustments(26:08) 1. What was the effect for typical children in the trials?(26:59) 2. What would have been this effect if clusters were pure?(27:30) True Incidence RRs under trial context(28:05) External validity adjustment(28:35) 3. What would have been this effect at 70% use rates?(29:27) Final Estimate(29:49) Extra Notes on Important Things(29:53) My Uncertainty(31:44) Costs(33:25) Generalising to other pyrethroid+chlorfenapyr LLINs(38:15) \*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*(38:35) Conclusion(38:42) AcknowledgmentsThe original text contained 144 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. The original text contained 10 images which were described by AI. --- First published: December 11th, 2024 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/5YsMEAAoSEhLrXdDo/next-gen-llins-with-chlorfenapyr --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.