“I bet superforecaster David Manheim 2 k$ that the unemployment rate in the United States in 2027 will be lower than 8 %” by Vasco Grilo🔸

I and David Manheim, a Good Judgement's superforecaster, agreed on the following bet on 19 May 2025:

• If the mean monthly unemployment rate in the United States (US) in 2027, as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), is higher than 8 %, I donate 2 k$ to an organisation or fund of David's choice in January 2028.
• Otherwise, David donates 1 k$ to an organisation or fund of my choice in January 2028. Currently, it would be the Centre for Exploratory Altruism Research's (CEARCH's) High Impact Philanthropy Fund (HIPF), which I estimate decreases 5.07 billion soil-animal-years per $.

Neglecting the risk of the bet not being fulfilled, it is worth it for me if my probability of winning is higher than 1/3 (= 1/(2*10^3/(1*10^3) + 1)).

Here are my and David's informal signatures:

• Vasco Grilo.
• David Manheim.

I remain open to bets against short AI timelines, or what they supposedly [...]

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First published:
September 1st, 2025

Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BjtFYiWrKpFWmtKXZ/i-bet-superforecaster-david-manheim-2-kusd-that-the

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.