“Chip Production Policy Won’t Matter as Much as You’d Think” by Davidmanheim

tl;dr - If timelines are short, it's too late, and if they are long (and if we don't all die,) the way to win the "AI race" is to generate more benefit from AI, not control of chip production.

In AI policy, there's a lot of focus on the speed frontier AI develops and becomes increasingly important for the economy, and creates substantial new risks of loss of control. There is also a lot of focus on the chips needed for training and running the frontier models, which involves industrial policy around who has the chips, and who can make them. This leads to a questionable narrative around the race for AGI, but even before we get to that question, there's a simple question about the dynamics of the two dimensions.

If AI takeoff is fast, the question of where the chips will be located is already determined [...]

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First published:
August 31st, 2025

Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7GHbwiDqMLYr2g4S7/chip-production-policy-won-t-matter-as-much-as-you-d-think

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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