英语新闻丨专家提醒近期出生人数上升是暂时现象

Several regions in China have reported a rise in new births during the first half of the year, driven by pent-up demand to have children following the COVID-19 pandemic and the auspicious Year of the Dragon. However, experts caution that the increase is likely a short-term "episode" and that reversing the long-term decline in births will require more robust policy support.2024年7月以来，多地发布数据显示，今年上半年出生人口同比有所增长。专家表示，这与三孩政策以及农历“龙年生龙子”有一定关系，也可能预示着出生人口下降趋势略微出现缓解。In Guangdong province, the number of births rose by 1.4 percent year-on-year during the first six months, according to Liu Fenghua, deputy head of Guangdong Women and Children Hospital.广东省妇幼保健院副院长刘风华向记者介绍，今年1-6月，全省活产数比去年同期略有增长，增幅为1.4%。 Liu told the Yangcheng Evening News that the increase was fueled by China's 2021 policy allowing couples to have up to three children, as well as the cultural significance of the Year of the Dragon, which symbolizes success, wealth and good fortune.刘风华在接受《羊城晚报》采访时表示，这一增长受到中国2021年三孩政策的推动，以及龙年寓意成功、财富和好运的传统观念影响。"The increase may indicate a temporary easing of the downward trend in new births," Liu said. 刘风华表示：“这一增长可能表明新生儿出生人数下降趋势的暂时缓解。”In Qingdao, Shandong province, the number of births rose by 5.93 percent year-on-year, reaching 22,669 in the first half of this year. Du Weiping, a senior official with the city's health commission, told a local television program that the number of newborns in Qingdao is expected to see a slight increase or remain stable throughout the year.青岛卫生健康委员会党组成员杜维平在接受采访时表示，青岛户籍人口出生数为22669人，同比增长5.93%，预计青岛市2024年出生人口将与去年持平或略高于去年。He attributed the growth to an uptick in the number of women of childbearing age, pro-birth government policies and the preference for children born in the Year of the Dragon. However, Du predicted that the number of newborns would remain low over the next few years.杜维平表示，目前青岛人口出生数量有所增加可能有以下几个原因：育龄妇女结构性增加，政策推动及属相偏好。据推测，未来的几年里，青岛出生人口仍将维持在一个低生育水平上。In Baoji, Shaanxi province, the number of newborns in five surveyed hospitals and medical institutions increased by 10.7 percent year-on-year during the first half of the year, according to the city's bureau of statistics. Officials said the baby boom was driven by the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, which had previously discouraged some couples from having children due to health concerns. The Year of the Dragon and supportive government policies also played a role in the surge. 陕西宝鸡统计局数据显示，今年上半年五家调查医院和医疗机构的新生儿数量同比增长了10.7%。专家表示，许多年轻人担心新冠病毒对孩子健康成长危害性，表示不敢结婚不敢怀孕；同时，龙年的生育观念和三孩政策也发挥了重要作用。Despite these localized increases, the National Bureau of Statistics reported a long-term decline in births. The number of newborns peaked at 17.86 million in 2016 but has fallen each year since, reaching just 9.02 million last year. The country's overall population has also declined for a second consecutive year, dropping by more than 2 million from 2022. 尽管地方性的增长存在，国家统计局报告了长期出生人口的下降。2016年出生人数曾达到1760万，此后每年呈下降趋势，去年降至仅902万。国家总人口也连续第二年下降，比2022年减少了超过200万。In response, local governments have introduced various incentives, including tax breaks and childcare subsidies, to encourage more births. However, experts warn that these measures are insufficient to reverse the country's demographic trends.对此，地方政府推出了包括减税和育儿补贴政策在内的各种激励措施以鼓励生育。然而，专家表示，这些措施不足以逆转国家的人口趋势。Yuan Xin, professor at Nankai University's School of Economics and vice-president of the China Population Association, emphasized that the current uptick in births is temporary and cannot halt the long-term decline. He pointed out that after China lifted most COVID-19 restrictions in late 2022, many couples who had postponed having children during the pandemic decided to have babies the next year, leading to the increase observed in early 2024.南开大学经济学院教授、中国人口学会副会长原新表示，当前出生人数的上升是暂时的，无法阻止长期下降的趋势。他指出，随着中国在2022年底取消疫情限制，许多在疫情期间推迟生育的夫妻决定在2023年生育，从而导致2024年初的增长。"However, the number of women of childbearing age will continue to decline, while the country's overall birthrate is unlikely to rise. The downward trend in newborns will persist," Yuan said, adding that it will take time for pro-birth policies to have a significant impact. He suggested that more substantial government measures will be needed to address the ongoing population decline.原新表示：“育龄妇女人数将继续下降，我国整体出生率不太可能上升。新生儿的下降趋势仍将持续。”支持生育的政策需要时间才能产生重大影响。他建议政府需要采取更实质性的措施来解决持续的人口下降问题。China Population Associationn.中国人口学会