英语新闻丨明年或将继续延续以旧换新政策

China is likely to extend the consumer goods trade-in program into 2026, as analysts said there is still substantial, unmet demand among Chinese households to upgrade home appliances and digital devices, as well as ample fiscal headroom to underpin the consumption campaign.分析人士表示，由于中国家庭对家电和数码设备升级的需求仍有较大缺口，且有充足的财政空间支持这项消费刺激举措，中国可能会将消费品以旧换新政策延续至2026年。The initiative, proven effective in driving big-ticket item spending and delivering tangible benefits to households, is expected to enable China to begin the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) period on a sound footing, they added.他们补充称，该举措已被证实能有效拉动大额商品消费，并为家庭带来切实利益，有望助力中国在“十五”规划（2026-2030年）开局之年奠定良好基础。China's trade-in program is a government-backed initiative to boost domestic consumption by providing subsidies for consumers who trade in outdated items like white goods, automobiles and electronics for new, more efficient models.中国的以旧换新政策是一项政府支持的举措，通过为消费者提供补贴，鼓励其将家电、汽车和电子产品等老旧物品置换为新型、高效的产品，从而提振国内消费。Although an official announcement has not yet been made, multiple policy signals and clear market trends — particularly the shift toward smart and green products — suggest an extension is possible.尽管官方尚未发布正式通知，但多项政策信号和明确的市场趋势——尤其是向智能、绿色产品的转型——表明该政策有望延续。This likelihood was reinforced by the State Council, the country's Cabinet, which set explicit targets for aging vehicles and outdated appliance recycling volume through 2027 in a March 2024 document that launched the current trade-in round.2024年3月，国务院（中国内阁）发布文件启动本轮以旧换新工作，并明确设定了截至2027年的老旧车辆和废旧家电回收量目标，这进一步强化了政策延续的可能性。In addition, the 2024 Government Work Report pledged to issue ultra-long special treasury bonds "over each of the next several years". These bonds have served as the funding mechanism of the trade-in initiative.此外，2024年《政府工作报告》承诺“在今后几年每年”发行超长期特别国债。这些债券已成为以旧换新举措的资金保障机制。These policy statements, coupled with Beijing's emphasis on boosting household consumption in its recommendations for the next five-year blueprint released last month, indicate that policymakers are likely to extend the trade-in program into 2026, according to market watchers.市场观察人士指出，这些政策表述，加之北京上月发布的下一个五年规划建议中对扩大居民消费的重视，表明政策制定者可能会将以旧换新政策延续至2026年。Wang Wei, former director of the Institute of Market Economy at the Development Research Center of the State Council, told China Daily in an exclusive interview that while stimulating consumption has been top economic priority this year, it will also remain crucial in 2026 — the inaugural year of the 15th Five-Year Plan.国务院发展研究中心市场经济研究所前所长王微在接受《中国日报》独家采访时表示，尽管刺激消费是今年的首要经济任务，但在2026年——“十五”规划的开局之年，这一任务仍将至关重要。Maintaining a pro-consumption macroeconomic orientation is essential, which requires a further scaling-up of targeted fiscal spending in this regard, Wang said, adding that the mechanism of ultra-long special treasury bonds, deployed for the trade-in program in 2024 and 2025, should be extended into next year.王微称，保持有利于消费的宏观经济导向至关重要，这需要进一步加大相关定向财政支出力度。2024年和2025年用于以旧换新政策的超长期特别国债机制，应延续至明年。Yu Xiangrong, chief China economist at Citi, said that the funding pool for the trade-in program in 2026 is expected to remain at around 300 billion yuan ($41.3 billion), unchanged from the levels seen in 2025.花旗集团首席中国经济学家余向荣表示，2026年以旧换新政策的资金规模预计将维持在3000亿元人民币（约合413亿美元）左右，与2025年持平。Yu said the policy emphasis will shift from sheer scale to smarter allocation by expanding the range of eligible products and extending the program's reach into rural communities.余向荣指出，政策重心将从单纯追求规模转向更合理的资源配置，具体包括扩大补贴覆盖产品范围，并将政策推广至农村地区。A faster-than-expected issuance of national subsidies for consumer goods trade-ins in the first half of the year has tightened availability in recent months, leaving a pool of unmet demand that analysts say will help make the case for extending the program into 2026.今年上半年，消费品以旧换新国家补贴的发放速度超出预期，导致近几个月补贴额度紧张，市场上仍存在一批未得到满足的需求。分析人士认为，这将为政策延续至2026年提供有力支撑。Looking into next year, Xu Dongsheng, vice-chairman of the China Household Electrical Appliances Association, said that policymakers could consider setting differentiated incentive rates based on a product's price bracket and technological profile.展望明年，中国家用电器协会副理事长徐东升表示，政策制定者可考虑根据产品的价格区间和技术特性，设定差异化的补贴比例。Premium products, particularly those with AI integration, higher-efficiency and environmentally friendly features, could receive a higher subsidy proportion. These categories, seen as drivers of future industry trends, align with national priorities for technological advancement and carbon neutrality. Meanwhile subsidies for basic, functionally straightforward products would be scaled back appropriately, Xu said.徐东升称，高端产品，尤其是集成人工智能、能效更高且具备环保特性的产品，可能会获得更高比例的补贴。这些品类被视为未来产业发展趋势的驱动力，与国家技术进步和碳中和的核心目标相契合。同时，针对基础款、功能简单产品的补贴将适当缩减。According to an executive meeting of the State Council on Friday, industrial upgrading must be guided and propelled by consumption upgrading, where high-quality supply better satisfies diverse demand.国务院周五召开的常务会议指出，必须以消费升级引领和推动产业升级，通过高质量供给更好满足多样化需求。It is essential to deploy new technologies and business models, deeply integrate AI to enhance their capabilities, and concentrate efforts on key sectors to introduce novel products and value-added services, thereby expanding new consumption frontiers, as noted during the meeting.会议强调，要运用新技术、新模式，深度融合人工智能提升产品和服务能力，聚焦重点领域推出新产品和增值服务，拓展新消费空间。trade-in program以旧换新政策ultra-long special treasury bonds超长期特别国债fiscal spending财政支出big-ticket item spending大额商品消费white goods白色家电（特指冰箱、洗衣机等大型家电，政策补贴品类）